Off-premise trends across beverage-alcohol suggest an even bleaker year ahead for the industry than “what we already limped through in 2024,” according to the latest monthly update from Bump Williams Consulting (BWC) and founder Bump Williams.
“While year-to-date (YTD) aggregates aren’t too far off where we sat at this same point last year, the dramatic downturn through mid-March has raised some red flags and serious ‘watchouts’ for us,” Williams wrote. “Pairing that with the fact that 2024 historical trends through mid-April only seem to exacerbate declines or stifle momentum coming out of March, and our optimism continues to be dampened after what appeared to be a somewhat promising finish heading into the year.”
YTD through March 15, beer volume, measured in case sales, has declined -3.6% in NIQ-tracked off-premise channels (total U.S. xAOC + liquor open state + convenience), BWC reported. Wine continues to record the steepest declines (-4.4%), while spirits dollar sales are down -2.2%.
Trends are similar to the same period in 2024 (YTD ending March 16), with beer dollar sales down -3.7%, wine -4.3% and spirits -1.2%. However, things start to lean more negative when looking at four-week data, Williams noted.
In the last four weeks (L4W), beer and wine volume declined -5.1% year-over-year (YoY), while spirits volume has increased +0.7%. In the same four-week period in 2024, beer volume declined -3.1%, wine -4.6% and spirits -0.2%.
Trends are not expected to get any better if the industry follows similar patterns to 2024. Declines accelerated in 2024 for the four-week period ending April 13, with beer volume down -5.3%, wine -5.2% and spirits -1.5% – “not earth-shattering shifts, but a notable acceleration of decline, nonetheless,” Williams wrote.
“Although inflation was certainly present at this stage last year, you can argue that the current economic environment is much more challenging, and consumer confidence is much lower at present … neither of which bode well if we attempt to look ahead from a sales forecasting perspective,” Williams added.
Note, four-week data is just a snippet of off-premise trends, and scan data itself doesn’t give a complete picture of industry performance, as it does not measure all retail outlets or any on-premise data.
So what’s causing this year’s accelerated declines? For beer, the largest contributor in a laundry list of causes is the category’s historic “growth engines” – particularly imports and flavored malt beverages (FMBs) – have stopped growing, Williams wrote.
“Everyone is asking the same question, ‘What happens when the growth engines stop growing?’ and my answer is, ‘Ever imagine what it would feel like to be riding your high-performance bike down a steep hill and then suddenly somebody throws a tree branch into the spokes of your front tire?’” Williams wrote.
YTD import beer volume has declined -1.5%, dipping into the red after consistently recording growth throughout 2024. In the L4W, declines have accelerated, with volume down -3.7% YoY. Should the segment follow similar patterns to 2024, those declines will only worsen in the coming weeks, as import volume shifts from +5% in the four-week period ending March 16, 2024, to +0.5% in the four-weeks ending April 13.
The latest declines have been driven by slowed performance from Mexican imports, which have a dominating share of the segment. YTD Mexican import volume is just above flat (+0.8%), and entered the red in the L4W (-1.4% YoY). Meanwhile, non-Mexican import beer volume has “collectively slid deeper into the red,” declining -3.4% YTD and -6.5% in the L4W.
“Why?” Williams asked. “ICE activity? Mexican import drinkers afraid to go out shopping? Have they left the country? Are they in hiding? Have retailers already taken [price to consumer] up in anticipation of ridiculous tariff increases?
“Our proprietary Hispanic Consumer Shopping Study that we conducted three weeks ago supports a general FEAR from the Hispanic family to go out and shop,” he continued. “What a horrible situation.”
FMB volume sales have also stalled, recording a “notable flip in momentum from 2024 growth to 2025 declines,” Williams wrote. FMB volume has declined -0.6% YTD and -3.4% YoY in the L4W. A year ago, the segment was recording +10.3% growth YTD and +9.9% YoY growth for the four-week period.
Similar to imports, FMBs’ declines can be attributed to the segment’s largest growth-contributing subsegment. For FMBs, that’s hard tea, which has maintained volume sales growth YTD (+1.2%), but is in decline in the L4W (-2.5% YoY). In the same period in 2024, hard tea volume was up +24.7% both YTD and for the four-week period.
Additionally, hard lemonade, the second largest subsegment in FMBs, has recorded double-digit declines in both the L13W (-13.3%) and L4W (-14.7%).
Two beer segments remain in the black YTD: super premium (+2.7%) and non-alcoholic (+17.6%). However, their positive trends have also lessened significantly in the L4W: +0.7% and +14%, respectively. Both segments recorded a decline in volume growth in April versus March, suggesting super premium is “on the precipice of declines in the coming weeks,” Williams wrote.
“It is difficult to envision a path where that narrative is rewritten over the coming weeks in 2025 for beer of ANY type,” he added.
Wine and spirits will likely face a similar fate this month, should history repeat itself.
Wine volume sales are down -5.8% YTD and -6.5% in the L4W. In the same period in 2024, wine volume sales were down -5.4% YTD and -5.9% YoY in the L4W. Those declines accelerated in the four-week period ending April 13 (-6.4%)
Spirits volume sales are down -1.6% YTD and -3% YoY in the L4W. In the same period in 2024, spirits volume sales declined -2.8% YTD and -3.7% YoY in the L4W, followed by a -4.3% YoY decline in the four-weeks ending April 13.
The only spirits subsegment to buck the trends was NA spirits, which improved its growth trends from +81.4% in the four weeks ending March 16, to +121.1% in the four weeks ending April 13. The subsegment will likely follow a similar pattern this year, as its volume sales growth in the L4W (+96.7%) was above YTD trends (+95.9%).