Domestic beer shipments are off to a rough start in 2025.
U.S. beer shipments declined -8.7% year-over-year (YoY) in January 2025, as brewers shipped 10.55 million barrels, according to estimates of domestic tax paid shipments from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB), shared by the Beer Institute (BI). The decline amounted to more than 1 million fewer barrels being shipped YoY.
The numbers are a stark reversal from January 2024 when shipments increased +2.9% (more than 11.55 million barrels) and February 2024 when shipments grew +9.6% (more than 12.1 million barrels), before a big drop off in March (-15.8%, to 12.4 million barrels).
With a month in the books, the total beer supply for 2025 stands at -5.5% YoY, which BI chief economist Andrew Heritage described as “a soft month.”
Notably, the total beer supply for full-year 2024 was down -1.8%, while BI depletions for the category declined -2.5%, Heritage wrote. 2024’s volume declines were driven by a soft summer, with 87% of the losses occurring June through September.
Heritage added that January and February 2024 saw “historically high shipments levels due to some front loading of supply as a precaution in case of labor disruptions (which also contributed to a soft March to even out Q1 inventories).”
Meaning, expect “some distortion to the monthly trends” in the YoY comps in Q1.
Heritage also pointed to instability in the greater economy as “uncertainty over future economic policy is leading to a pullback throughout the economy.”
“The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which compiles mentions of economic uncertainty in major newspapers, reached a 40-year high and is seven times the historical average for the first week of March 2025,” Heritage wrote. “The index has increased steadily since late January. Consumers seem to have taken notice and are pulling back spending on consumer goods, including beer.
“Consumer confidence will likely rebound as uncertainty fades in the coming months.”
Shipments Decline From Top 3 Beer States
Zeroing in on state shipments, shipments to wholesalers (STWs) declined -7% YoY in January 2025, to more than 13.5 million barrels, per the BI report. The decline amounted to more than 1 million fewer barrels being shipped compared to January 2024.
Shipments declined from the three largest beer shipping states.
Texas led the way in state shipments with 1.596 million barrels shipped in January. However, Lone Star State shipments declined -14.7% compared to the 1.87 million barrels shipped in January 2024.
California followed in second, with 1.468 million barrels shipped in January 2025, a -9.4% YoY decline from the more than 1.6 million barrels shipped to start 2024.
Shipments in Florida declined -5.8%, to more than 1.1 million barrels in January.
Heritage pointed to Utah (+10.2%, to 103,000 barrels), Wyoming (+9.3%, to 30,000 barrels) and Washington, D.C., (+4.5%, to 23,000 barrels) as bright spots, posting the largest YoY increases.
“Beer sales continue to grow in Utah due to the increasing popularity of low- and no-alcohol beers in addition to net positive population migration since 2020,” he wrote.
Mexico Drives Import Growth
Overall imports of beer increased +5.7% YoY, according to numbers from the Department of Commerce. Driving the growth was imported beer from Mexico, which increased +8%.
Mexico led the way by a wide margin with nearly 87.8 million gallons (around 2.8 million barrels) shipped. Imports from the Netherlands followed with 8.9 million gallons (more than 287,000 barrels), an increase of +6.3%.
Imports from Ireland declined -11.9%, to more than 3.8 million gallons (more than 122,500 barrels).
Heritage noted that imports of non-alcoholic (NA) beer increased +34.5%.
The BI will share its February 2025 reports on April 3.