Total U.S. beer supply was nearly flat in October, after state shipments and domestic tax paids rebounded and increased volume versus October 2023, according to the Beer Institute (BI) in the trade group’s latest round of economic reports.
Total supply declined -0.6% year-over-year (YoY), a decrease “much smaller relative to recent months,” indicating “inventories have right-sized and stronger months are ahead,” BI chief economist Andrew Heritage wrote.
The slight decline follows a -6.7% YoY decline in September and -4.4% decline in October. Year-to-date (YTD) total supply has declined -1.4% versus the same 10-month period in 2023.
“As 2024 comes to a close, the beer industry is on a strong foundation heading into the new year,” Heritage wrote. “Although some month-to-month trends have been roller coaster-like in 2024, the overall trend is both improving and flattening for the beer industry in the closing months of the year.”
Heritage also noted that beer depletions trends for October and November have been outpacing total industry trends, with beer depletions declining -1% in the last eight weeks “due to a strong October and November” as well as a Thanksgiving boost.
Despite the positivity, total supply remained in the red due to imports recording a second consecutive month of YoY declines. Beer imports decreased -6.3% in October, according to data from the Department of Commerce. The decline follows a -0.1% YoY decline in September that broke a five-month growth trend.
Mexico, the largest beer importer to the U.S., also recorded another month of declines, with beer import volume from the country declining -3.3% YoY. Mexican beer imports are still up YTD, increasing +7.8%.
Seven of the top 10 imports by YTD volume recorded YoY declines. Beyond Mexico, the other members of the top 10 in the red include:
- No. 2 The Netherlands (-26.2% YoY, +2.1% YTD);
- No. 3 Ireland (-27.6% YoY, +10.7% YTD);
- No. 4 Canada (-45% YoY, -31.4% YTD);
- No. 5 Germany (-21.9% YoY, -0.4% YTD);
- No. 7 Belgium (-10.6% YoY, -6.3% YTD);
- No. 9 Jamaica (-2.4% YoY, -6.2% YTD).
The three top 10 countries to increase supply include No. 6 Italy (+64.4% YoY, +7.3% YTD), No. 8 Guatemala (+36.1% YoY, +25.7% YTD) and No. 10 United Kingdom (+119% YoY, +22% YTD).
Meanwhile, domestic tax paids increased +1.2% YoY, to 11.4 million barrels, an increase of more than 130,000 barrels YoY, according to the BI, citing data from the the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB).
October marked the first YoY increase in tax paids since May, when shipments increased +5.8%, to more than 13.5 million barrels. The switch followed the second largest YoY percentage decline in shipments after March (-16%).
YTD, domestic tax paid shipments have declined -3.3%, to nearly 125.2 million barrels, a loss of more than 4.3 million barrels versus the same 10-month period in 2023.
Note, shipment figures are estimates, and could change as more data is released by the TTB.
State shipments increased +1.3% YoY, and are now down -1.3% YTD, to more than 160.7 million barrels, marking a loss of about 2.2 million barrels YTD.
The country’s largest states by beer supply recorded YoY growth, including No. 1 Texas (+6.3% YoY, to more than 1.78 million barrels) and No. 2 California (+6.3%, to nearly 1.63 million barrels).
Nearly all 50 states remain flat or in the red YTD, except for California (+1.5%), Iowa (+1.2%) and Nevada (+3.3%).
The BI’s next round of economic reports, including November data, will be released on January 7.