The latest data set from NIQ showed a modest improvement in sales declines for total bev-alc in the two-week period before September 7, which included a tepid Labor Day weekend, according to analysis from Goldman Sachs Equity Research.
NIQ uses U.S. x AOC (extended All Outlet Combined) including convenience stores to summarize multi-channel markets and aggregate all national cross-outlet market data, and includes certain retailers (such as Whole Foods Market) that other providers do not.
Here’s the overview:
- Value declines improved slightly at -1.9% for the two-week period, compared to the -2.4% observed in the four-week period and -1.6% in the 12-weeks.
- Volume declines also eased, down -4.3% versus -4.7% in the four-weeks and -3.7% in the 12-weeks up against stronger pricing growth, up +2.5% in the two-weeks compared to +2.4% and +2.2% in the four- and 12-week periods, respectively.
- Performance improved for beer, spirits, hard seltzer and cider, while deteriorating slightly for wine.
Flavored Malt Beverages
FMB sales growth was up +0.4% in the two-weeks, compared to -0.2% four-week versus +8% in the 52-weeks. Volume was at -1.5% (versus -2.1% in the four-weeks) and average pricing was steady at +2%.
Hard tea rose slightly to +11% in the two-weeks versus +10.7% in the four weeks, and +23.2% in the 52-weeks, led by Boston Beer-owned Twisted Tea (+5.2% in the two weeks up from +4.6% in the four.)
Hard lemonade continued to struggle, but sales were relatively steady recently, down -14.2% in the two-week period from -14.9% in the four-week period and -7.8% over the 52-weeks. Molson Coors’ Simply Spiked continued to decline with a -38.3% drop over the two weeks versus -19.4% in the 52-weeks.
Hard soda was down -7.7% in the two-week period, falling from -6.1% in the four-weeks; the segment is at +19.9% for the 52-weeks. Boston Beer-owned Hard MTN Dew sales were down -10.9% in the two weeks, performing better than the -15.3% in the 12-weeks, as the brand transitions out of Pepsi’s Blue Cloud distribution system.
Hard Seltzer
Hard seltzer continues to struggle with sales declining by -10.2%, a slight improvement from -11% in the previous four weeks and -11.5% in the 52-weeks. Volumes were down -13% (-13.8% for four-weeks and -14.4% for 52-weeks), while average pricing remained relatively flat at 3.2%.
Frontrunner White Claw saw sales decelerate slightly to -0.6% in the two-week period versus -0.3% in the four-weeks and +2% in the 52-weeks. Truly (-24%) Molson Coors’ Topo Chico Hard Seltzer (-18.9%) and Vizzy (-32%) and Diageo’s Lone River Ranch Water (-20.8%) all saw double-digit losses. Constellation Brands’ Modelo Ranch Water faced a dip from -3.9% in the 52-weeks to -4.5% in the two.
Happy Dad Seltzer (+55.2%) was the only brand to post gains
Beer
Sales declines in the beer category softened to -2% in the two-week period, an improvement from -2.7% in the previous four-weeks, versus -0.8.% in the 52-weeks. Volume declines in beer also lessened slightly to -4.2% from -4.6% in the four-weeks, against relatively steady pricing growth hovering around +2.1% in the last few periods.
Modelo’s sales growth accelerated, up by +3.8% the two-week period, compared to +2.7% in the four-week period and +11.5% in the 52-week period. The brand showed stronger volumes at +2.9% in the two-weeks, versus +1.9% in the four-weeks and 10.5% in the 52-weeks, against a fairly steady pricing increase of +0.9%.
Sales pressures for A-B’s Bud Light continue, with a mild decrease of -7.6% in the two-weeks, compared to -7.5% in the four-week period and -15.2% in the 52-week period.
Molson Coors’ Coors Light and Miller Lite continued to experience declines in sales, with Coors Light down -8.5% and Miller Lite down -7% in the two-week period, compared to -5.7% and -2.1% in the 52-weeks. Market share for both brands contracted (7% and 5.9%, respectively).
Ready-to-Drink (RTD) Cocktails
Spirit-based RTD sales growth was positive, recording a +13.3% increase, up from +12.4% in the preceding four-weeks, versus +13.1% in the 12-weeks, and +19.9% in the 52 weeks. Wine-based RTD sales were also consistent, up +21.6% in the two-week period versus +30.6% in the 52-weeks.
Gallo-owned High Noon still leads, up +8.3% in the two-weeks, though this was a slight decrease from +8.9% in the prior four-weeks and a drop from +25.5% in the 52-weeks. Volume was up +8.5% in the two weeks with pricing nearly flat at -0.2%. Dollar share is contracting for the brand on both a sequential and year-over-year basis.
Second-place in sales from High Noon is Anheuser-Busch InBev’s (A-B) Cutwater, which saw sales rise a bit to +16.9%, with volumes up +16% and pricing up +0.8%. A-B-owned Nütrl also posted high growth (+30%) but slowed versus +69.6% in the 52-week period.
The spirits-based hard tea race is heating up: Stateside Vodka-owned Surfside and Boston Beer-owned Sun Cruiser held a 1.6% and 1.7% share respectively in the latest two-week data, with ACVs of 8% and 16%.
Jack Daniels RTDs continued to face challenges, with sales down by -11.1% in the two-week period, a drop from -13.8% in the four-weeks and a contrast from +23% growth in the 52-weeks.
Boston Beer’s Dogfish Head Cocktails (-28.1%) and Truly (-45.2%), and Mark Anthony Brands’ White Claw Spirits Cocktails (-46.1%) posted losses.