Nearly three-quarters (72%) of American consumers are concerned about a looming recession, and 52% think “the economy will be worse this time next year,” according to a recent poll from insights firm Numerator.
It’s an apparently bipartisan dread, Numerator reported.
“The unease is felt across the political spectrum,” the firm wrote. “Even in areas of the country that voted overwhelmingly for President [Donald] Trump, 63% of households are very or somewhat concerned about an upcoming recession.”
Numerator conducted two polls this month to take the pulse of consumer sentiment toward tariffs and a potential recession.
“A majority of households across the political spectrum were found to harbor concerns about tariffs, recession, and stock-market volatility,” Numerator wrote.
Nearly nine-in-10 (89%) of consumers are aware of the Trump administration’s enacted or proposed tariffs, a marked increase from December 2024, when 53% were aware.
Trump campaigned on an economic strategy that centered tariffs as a way to boost the government’s revenue, but the rollercoaster his policies have set the global economy on has left consumers and financial experts alike feeling queasy.
Trump ordered a 90-day postponement on “reciprocal” tariffs on April 9, while increasing tariffs on China to 145% and instituting a baseline 10% tariff on nearly all global imports.
Despite the postponement of reciprocal tariffs and carveouts for certain products, members of the beer and beverage industries are concerned about increasing costs on some of their inputs due to the administration’s trade policy. Trump imposed an across-the-board 25% levy on imported aluminum and steel on March 12, upping the aluminum tariff from 10% and removing exemptions.
Consumer comprehension is improving, with 40% now saying they “fully grasp how tariffs affect prices,” a 6% increase from Numerator’s February poll. Only 11% say they have “little-to-no understanding” of tariffs’ impact.
A quarter of respondents told Numerator they find tariffs “harmful,” and 23% called them “helpful.” Six-in-10 said they think peoples’ opinions on tariffs “are largely shaped by political affiliation.”
Nevertheless, 55% of households believe these tariffs are “bad” for the economy in 2024; 24% think they will “have a positive impact,” and 21% are unsure.
“These sentiments were again represented across the political spectrum, even in areas of the country that voted overwhelmingly for President Trump in November,” Numerator noted.
One-third of respondents told Numerator they believe the economy will be in better shape at this point in 2026, and 16% are unsure.
In areas of the country that “voted overwhelmingly” for Trump, consumers are slightly more hopeful. Nearly half (49%) believe the economy will be stronger next year, while 36% think it will be worse and 15% are unsure.
As consumers brace for impact, 83% plan to change their shopping behaviors through a variety of tactics:
- 48% will look for sales or use coupons;
- 32% will delay purchases “until prices stabilize;”
- 32% will buy fewer imported items;
- 31% will stock up on supplies before prices;
- 25% will switch to domestic-made alternatives.
Since Numerator started polling consumers on how tariffs may affect their habits two months ago, switching to domestic-made products has been the only strategy to decline (-2 points). Both delaying purchases (+10 points) and stockpiling (+8) have seen significant increases.
Since the February poll, consumers have become increasingly concerned about higher prices for groceries (72% in April vs. 64% in February), “limited availability of certain products” (50% in April vs. 44% in February), the economy slowing down (39% in April vs. 25% in February), and negative effects on jobs and industries (21% in April vs. 13% in February).