The latest data set from NIQ showed a modest improvement in sales growth for total bev-alc in the two-week period before August 10, according to analysis from Goldman Sachs Equity Research.
NIQ uses US x AOC (extended All Outlet Combined) including convenience stores to summarize multi-channel markets and aggregate all national cross-outlet market data, and includes certain retailers (such as Whole Foods Market) that other providers do not.
Here’s the overview:
- Value declines improved slightly at -1.6% for the two-week period, compared to the -2.0% observed in the four-week period and -0.8% in the 12-weeks.
- Volume declines also eased, down -3.7% versus -4.1% in the four-weeks and -2.6% in the 12-weeks.
- Performance improved for beer, wine, hard seltzer and cider, while holding steady for spirits and deteriorating slightly for FMBs.
- Pricing growth remained stable at +2.2% both for the two-week and four-week periods.
Ready-to-Drink (RTD) Cocktails
Spirit-based RTD sales growth was positive, recording a +12.17% increase, but slightly down from 12.8% in the preceding four-weeks, versus +17.3% in the 12-weeks, and 23.2% in the 52 weeks. Wine-based RTD sales were also consistent, up +24.7% in the two-week period versus +28.3% in the 52-weeks.
Gallo-owned High Noon still leads, up +11.2% in the two-weeks, though this was a slight decrease from +12.8% in the prior four-weeks and a drop from +29.6% in the 52-weeks. Volume was up +11.3% in the two weeks with pricing nearly flat at -0.1%. Dollar share is contracting for the brand on both a sequential and year-over-year basis.
Second-place in sales from High Noon is Anheuser-Busch InBev’s (A-B) Cutwater, which saw sales rise a bit to +16.8%, with volumes up +15.9% and pricing up +0.8%. A-B-owned Nütrl also posted high growth (+38.2%) but slowed versus +81.6% in the 52-week period.
In the spirits-based hard tea race, Stateside Vodka-owned Surfside and Boston Beer-owned Sun Cruiser held a 1.5% and 1.3% share respectively in the latest two-week data, with ACVs of 7% and 11%.
Jack Daniels RTDs continued to face challenges, with sales down by -15.7% in the two-week period, a slight drop from -16% in the four-weeks and a stark contrast to +33.5% growth in the 52-weeks.
Boston Beer’s Dogfish Head Cocktails (-10.9%) and Truly (-36.7%), and Mark Anthony Brands’ White Claw Spirits Cocktails (-47.7%) posted losses.
Flavored Malt Beverages
FMB sales growth remained flat in the two and four-week periods versus +9.1% in the 52-weeks. Volume was down -2.1% (versus +1.9% in the four-weeks) and average pricing was steady at +2.1%.
Hard tea dipped slightly to +11.5% in the two-weeks versus +12.2% in the four weeks, and +25.5% in the 52-weeks, led by Boston Beer-owned Twisted Tea (+5.6% in the two weeks down from +5.9% in the four.)
Hard Lemonade continued to struggle, but sales were relatively steady recently, down -15.2% in the two-week period from -15.7% in the four-week period and -6.8% over the 52-weeks. Molson Coors’ Simply Spiked continued to decline with a -35.6% drop over the two weeks versus -15% in the 52-weeks.
Hard Soda decelerated from +3.4% in the four-week period to +2.5% in the two-weeks; the segment is at +22.8% for the 52-weeks. Boston Beer-owned Hard MTN Dew sales were down -15.2% in the two weeks, performing better than the -24.7% in the 12-weeks, as the brand transitions out of Pepsi’s Blue Cloud distribution system.
Hard Seltzer
Hard seltzer continues to struggle with sales declining by -11.6%, a slight improvement from -12.0% in the previous four weeks and -11.7% in the 52-weeks. Volumes were down -14.2% (-14.6% for four-weeks and -15% for 52-weeks), while average pricing remained relatively flat at +3.0%.
Frontrunner White Claw saw sales decelerate slightly to -0.8% in the two-week period versus +0.5% in the four-weeks and +2.1% in the 52-weeks. Truly (-25.1%) Molson Coors’ Topo Chico Hard Seltzer (-16.5%) and Vizzy (-38.3%) and Diageo’s Lone River Ranch Water (-19.1%) all saw double-digit losses. Constellation Brands’ Modelo Ranch Water faced a dip from +7.1% in the 52-weeks to -3.7% in the two.
Happy Dad Seltzer (+74.2%) was the only brand to post gains.
Beer
Sales declines in the beer category softened to -1.6% in the two-week period, an improvement from -2.0% in the previous four-weeks, versus -0.6% in the 52-weeks. Volume declines in beer also lessened slightly to -3.3% from -3.8% in the four-weeks, against relatively steady pricing growth hovering around +2.0% for the two, four and 12-week periods.
Modelo’s sales growth accelerated, up by +6.9% the two-week period, compared to +5.6% in the four-week period and +13.7% in the 52-week period. The brand showed stronger volumes at +5.5% in the two-weeks, versus +4.2% in the four-weeks and +12.1% in the 52-weeks, against a steady pricing increase of +1.3%.
Sales pressures for A-B’s Bud Light have eased, with a decrease of -5.9% in the two-weeks, compared to -6.6% in the four-week period and -21.6% in the 52-week period. The brand managed to gain a small amount of market share sequentially (3 basis points to 8.6%) but lost 43 basis points year-over-year.
Molson Coors’ Coors Light and Miller Lite continued to experience declines in sales, with Coors Light down -7.7% and Miller Lite down -5.8% in the two-week period, compared to 6.9% and 3.7% in the 52-weeks. Market share for both brands contracted (7.1% and 6% respectively), as we hit the anniversary of the Bud Light controversy.