The National Beer Wholesalers Association’s (NBWA) monthly survey of distributors’ beer purchasing behaviors recorded its highest December reading ever last month. However, the downward trend in hard seltzer and FMB purchasing continued as 2021 came to an end.
Overall, the NBWA’s Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI) for December 2021 reached a reading of 71, indicating increased distributor purchasing of beer products. The trade group attributed the increase to wholesalers and retailers building their inventories ahead of “planned/expected price increases” and continued supply chain challenges in the new year. A BPI reading over 50 indicates increased purchases, while readings below 50 denote contraction.
Even as the overall BPI for December 2021 showed increased demand, the FMB/hard seltzer segment posted a significant decline with a reading of 36 compared to December 2020’s reading of 80. The FMB/hard seltzer segment’s downward trend has continued since September 2021.
Beer category segments expanding in December 2021 included:
- imports (73 reading, up from 61 in December 2020);
- craft (60, up from 44 in December 2020);
- premium lights (65, up from 60 in December 2020);
- and domestic beer (51, up from 50 in December 2020).
Beyond FMBs/hard seltzers, segments in decline included below premiums (38 reading, down from 42 in December 2020) and cider (45 reading, up from 39 in December 2020).
“The industry numbers will continue to behave erratically over the next few months as shipments, depletions and sales to consumer measures remain out of sync,” the NBWA cautioned.
Meanwhile, distributors said their inventories “at-risk” of going out of code remained below a reading of 50 for all segments except for FMBs/hard seltzers.
NBWA chief economist Lester Jones wrote that the beer industry still “has a way to go to recover from all the adverse events of 2020 and 2021.”Jones added that the October U.S. Census Bureau wholesale trade data for alcoholic beverages and latest BPI data reveal “the significance of the supply chain problems.”
“Since April of 2020, inventories have consistently fallen below long-run trend,” he wrote. “At the same time, the inventory to sales ratio has been on a rollercoaster ride trying to reestablish a basic pre-pandemic relationship. Looking forward to watching how these data play out in 2022.”