Concerns about the delta variant are causing some consumers to avoid bars and restaurants, and the pandemic’s continuing effects have shifted days and times for consumers’ visits, on-premise market research firm CGA reported during a webinar last week.
“We have to keep a close eye on this, but what we really want to do is look at this through data and through insights and to really say well, what is the true impact on the channel at the moment?” Matthew Crompton, CGA client solutions director for the Americas, said. “Obviously, people are concerned, and that’s natural.”
In a survey conducted earlier this month, 22% of respondents said they were going out to eat and drink less frequently than they did before the COVID-19 pandemic began. Two-thirds of these respondents pointed to the highly contagious delta variant as their reason for doing so.
Of those who reported less frequent on-premise visits, 64% were women and 61% of them were older than 55. Men accounted for 36% of respondents who reported cutting back their trips out to dine and drink. Consumers aged 35-54 accounted for 23%, and the youngest age group (21-34) made up 16%.
“These are probably not the everyday consumer,” CGA client director for the Americas Patrick Bannon said, adding that older female consumers tend to visit on-premise establishments for “treat reward” occasions and celebrations and less for “regular everyday drinks” or drinks after work. “When they are going, these are typically potentially higher spend occasions, so if there’s outlets that are more tailored to this [group], then these [establishments] could be definitely affected by the impact of a decrease in visitation.”
Nearly half (46%) of all survey respondents older than 55 visit independently owned restaurants, compared with 35% of average consumers, and 40% of older consumers visit casual dining chains, compared with 36% of average consumers, CGA said.
“it is important to support those types of channels that will be affected,” Bannon said. “So, if your brands are over-indexed in these channels, it’s really important to engage with the retailer and see how you can combat this decrease or change in visitation.”
COVID Effects on On-Premise Visits Vary by State
Consumers’ reasons for choosing to go home or stay out in light of the pandemic vary across the five states the firm has tracked since the on-premise channel began reopening in early summer 2020 — Florida, New York, Illinois, Texas and California.
In California, 39% of respondents said they are staying home due to “concerns around getting ill from COVID,” compared to 31% of Floridians. One-third of Californians are “avoiding busy areas to prevent spread of COVID-19,” compared to 24% of respondents in Florida.
Only 28% of respondents in Florida said they would be more likely to go out if patrons had to show proof of vaccination, compared to 41% of California respondents. One-third of Californians would be more likely to go out if bars and restaurants placed protective barriers between booths and tables, compared to 26% of respondents in Florida.
State governments have taken different tacks on public health policy throughout the pandemic, and that has not changed in the post-vaccine period.
“We have seen that about seven states have already rolled out apps to let people know that they have been vaccinated,” CGA clients solutions manager for the Americas Mitch Stefani said. “In turn with that, about 22 states have already banned this type of system to some sort of a degree.”
New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Louisiana, Colorado, California and Hawaii have introduced apps that verify users’ vaccination status, which patrons can show to gain access to indoor bars and restaurants, sporting events and other performances in municipalities that require proof of vaccination, such as New York City and Los Angeles County. Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker said he is considering a similar statewide app.
States that have banned such apps include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Tennessee, Utah and Wyoming.
On-Premise Visits Shift to Weekends; Daytime On-Premise Drinking Increases Over 2019 Levels
Across all three beverage alcohol categories, weekend days increased their share of sales over 2019 levels, CGA reported.
Only wine (+1%) had a small increase in share on Fridays, but both beer (+2%) and wine (+3%) increased share on Saturdays. Sundays’ share grew for spirits (+2%), wine (+2%) and beer (+1%) compared to 2019.
Wine drinkers increased their consumption on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, stealing 1% share from each Monday and Thursday, and 2% from Tuesday and Wednesday. Beer consumption remained flat on Tuesday and Friday, but Monday, Wednesday and Thursday each lost 1% share.
“There’s been a huge shift from weekday alcohol consumption, into the weekend,” Stefani said. “This work from home culture has really been an attribute to this, with less visits with the likes of work colleagues taking place throughout the week and some of those quick trips after work are being eliminated.”
Lunch and brunch both had an increase in on-premise drinks occasions, according to a study CGA conducted in the spring. Twelve percent of consumers reported having a drink during brunch in 2021, compared to 8% in 2019; 19% of consumers said they drank at lunch, compared to 17% in 2019.
Consumers reported drinking slightly more during the mid-afternoon period (2-5 p.m.), with 18% reporting the practice in 2021, compared to 17% in 2019.
All three nighttime dayparts (early evening from 5-8 p.m., late evening from 8-10 .m. and late night after 10 p.m.) had distinct declines in on-premise drinking:
- Early evening — 53% of consumers drink on-premise in 2021, 62% in 2019;
- Late evening — 26% of consumers drink on-premise in 2021, 35% in 2019;
- Late night — 10% of consumers drink on-premise in 2021, 15% in 2019.