CGA: On-Premise Sales Velocity Declines Week-Over-Week in 5 Key Markets

Bar and restaurant sales velocity in all key markets tracked by on-premise market research firm CGA declined week-over-week for the week ending October 30.

“Average outlet [dollar] sales (velocity) trends have been slightly negative in recent weeks, following growth in September and the early part of October,” CGA wrote. “These recent trends continue to mirror 2019, suggesting that the country is experiencing normal seasonal trends.”

Nationwide, sales velocity in open on-premise establishments increased +46% over the same week in 2020, and +21% over the same week in 2019. Declines are both week-over-week and day-over-day, CGA reported.

“Daily velocities have been generally flat or slightly negative over the last two weeks,” CGA wrote. “All key states experienced negative trends over the Friday and Saturday preceding Halloween.”

Despite the week-over-week declines, all markets (California, Florida, Illinois, New York, Texas) posted sales velocity increases over the same periods in 2020 and 2019.

In California, sales velocity declined -6% week-over-week, but increased +49% compared to the same period in 2020, and +28% compared to the same period in 2019. Of the key cities tracked in California, only Los Angeles had sales velocity that trended slightly positive, about +1%. San Diego’s sales velocity posted the steepest decline, nearly -10%.

Florida posted the smallest week-over-week declines, with a -3% drop in sales velocity. On-premise velocities in the Sunshine State increased +31% over the same period in 2020 and +20% over the same period in 2019. At nearly -10%, Orlando’s sales velocity declined the most. Tampa, the best performing city, was flat.

In Illinois, sales velocity declined -10% week-over-week. Compared to the same period in 2020, when Illinois had severe pandemic-driven restrictions for on-premise establishments, sales velocity increased +108%. Sales velocity increased +8% over the same period in 2019. Chicago posted declines about twice as steep as the rest of the state, about -20%.

New York’s statewide sales velocity declined -7% week-over-week. On-premise sales velocity increased +76% compared to the same period in 2020, and +2% compared to 2019. Velocity declines were about equal for both New York City and the rest of the state.

In Texas, on-premise sales velocity declined -8% week-over-week. Compared to the same period in 2020, sales velocity increased +30%. Of the five states, Texas posted the strongest increase (+32%) over its 2019 sales velocity. Similar to New York, declines in key Texas cities (Austin, Dallas, Houston) were mostly equal.