A new year means it’s Brewbound’s annual roundtable conversation with our peers in beer industry journalism.
This year, the Brewbound team is joined by Kate Bernot, lead analyst for Feel Goods Insights, and David Steinman, VP and executive editor of Beer Marketer’s Insights. The discussion covers the biggest bev-alc news stories of 2025, including middle-tier consolidation, overall category health and consumer sentiment.
Although full-year scan data has yet to arrive, the beer category is poised to finish 2025 with low- to moderate-single-digit declines in dollar sales and volume, if the trends of the first 11 months hold.
“We’re looking at decline after decline after decline – it’s something like 30 million barrels down from our recent peak,” Steinman said, adding that “some of that was inflated from the pandemic gains.”
“It felt like it was going to normalize at least multiple times over, and it just keeps on declining at this rate,” he continued. “It’s hard to really put a finger on exactly one thing, but it’s easy to look at the broad-brush of impacts on the trends, and it’s just a tougher business now than it really ever has been for a consistent stretch.”
The usual suspects of health and wellness trends, Gen Zs’ alleged broad aversion to alcohol and the rise of intoxicating hemp dominate conversations elsewhere, but Bernot posited that there’s something bigger at play.
“The story that maybe went under-discussed for me last year was the broader macroeconomic factors going on in the U.S. and the pressure on the average consumer and how that fits into the choices people are making,” she said. “We hear so much about health. We hear so much about cannabis, THC, etc, competing categories.
“I just didn’t hear enough about how pressured the average U.S. consumer feels,” Bernot continued. “We’ve known for a long time that well-off Americans are carrying a lot of water for the U.S. economy, but they can’t do it forever, and especially not in general CPG. You can only go out to a restaurant so many times. You only need so many cases of beer if you’re a wealthy family.”
In addition to high-level impacts on the beer business, the conversation also explored granular topics, such as the rise of Guinness in the on-premise, seismic shifts in California distribution and Anheuser-Busch InBev’s growing strength in beyond beer.
Listen here or on your preferred podcast platform.