Beer distributors continue to have a “cautious outlook” on category trends through the final months of 2024, according to the National Beer Wholesalers Association (NBWA) and the October Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI).
Total beer posted a BPI reading of 42 in October. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
October marked the third consecutive October with a total beer reading below 50, “a trend for the post-COVID[-19] marketplace,” NBWA chief economist and VP of analytics Lester Jones wrote.
Despite continued caution, the October reading was 11 points higher than September’s reading of 31, indicating that there is some improved optimism among wholesalers, however slight it may be.
Still, “a slight year-over-year BPI decrease (from 48 in October 2023) – coupled with an at-risk inventory reading of 50 – indicates a continued downshift in distributor sentiment to a more cautious outlook,” Jones wrote.
The below premium segment posted a reading of 54, marking its first October in expansion since the BPI launched in 2014, according to Jones. In October 2023, below premium had a BPI reading of 45, making the segment one of only two observed beer segments to improve its BPI reading year-over-year (YoY).
Flavored malt beverages/hard seltzer was the only other segment to record YoY improvement, increasing its October BPI reading from 28 in 2023, to 38 in 2024. However, the below-50 reading means the segment is still in contraction.
Imports stayed in expansion with a BPI reading of 56. While imports has been one of only a few segments to consistently record growth throughout 2023 and 2024, the latest BPI could suggest a slowdown, as the October reading was 11 points lower than the segment’s October 2023 reading of 67. Imports were the only segment in expansion in September, with a reading of 53.
All other beer segments were in contraction in October, including:
- Craft (25), six points lower than October 2023 (31), and four points higher than September 2024 (21);
- Premium lights (41), 12 points lower than October 2023 (53), and three points higher than September 2024 (38);
- Premium regular (34), 15 points lower than October 2023 (49), and five points lower than September 2024 (39);
- Below premium (54), nine points higher than both October 2023 and September 2024 (45);
- Hard cider (29), six points lower than October 2023 (35), and one point lower than September 2024 (30).