Cycling a nearly -9% decline in September 2021 — the biggest decline of last year — U.S. brewers failed to eke out growth in September 2022.
Shipments from U.S. brewers declined -0.9% in September 2022, to 14.4 million barrels, according to the Beer Institute (BI), citing domestic tax paid estimates from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB).
September 2022’s shipments marked a 125,748-barrel decline compared to September 2021. Additionally, September was the seventh month of declines compared to 2021: January (-11.8%), February (-8.2%), April (-7.1%), May (-3.6%), June (-3.8%) and July (-5.5%).
2022 shipment numbers have outperformed 2021 in just two months: March (+1.5%) and August (+2.4%).
Year-to-date through September, U.S. brewers have shipped 124,363,330 barrels, a -3.9% decline, or more than 5 million fewer barrels than at the same time in 2021.
Note that these are estimates, and they are often revised by the end of the year. Shipment estimates for October 2022 are slated to be released on November 29.
State Shipments +0.9% in September 2022
The BI also shared estimated state shipment data for September 2022, which was up +0.9%, to 17,466,470 barrels, compared to September 2021.
Danelle Kosmal, VP of research for the BI, noted that the last two months of positive state shipment trends have helped “offset declines from earlier in the year, with year-to-date volume estimates down by only -1% compared to the same months in 2021.”
Kosmal wrote that 30 states saw increased beer shipments in September 2022 compared to the same time last year, “with five states accounting for 57% of the total growth.” The largest volume gains occurred in New York (+9.7%), Pennsylvania (+11.2%), Wisconsin (+7.3%), Washington (+7.4%), and Arizona (+6.4%). Nevertheless, Kosmal noted that shipments in four of those five states are still down overall year-to-date compared to 2021.
Through the first nine months of 2022, the best-performing states are Texas (+2.8%), Oregon (+13.6%), North Carolina (+4%), Montana (+10.9%), and Oklahoma (+3.3%). Kosmal added that both Oregon and Oklahoma posted declines in September 2022 compared to September 2021.
“Overall, Texas is the biggest share gainer YTD, up 0.4 share points, while California experienced the largest share loss, down -0.3 share points for the year,” she wrote.