The Beer Institute’s (BI) monthly economic report bore a rare bit of good news for the industry: Domestic tax paid beer shipments increased in June.
“June was the strongest month of the year for the industry with total supply down only -0.5% for the month,” BI chief economist Andrew Heritage wrote.
Industry supply includes domestic shipments, plus imports, which declined 3.6% in June, compared to the same month last year.
June was the first month of 2025 in which shipments grew. U.S. brewers shipped an estimated 14.4 million barrels of beer in June, marking a 0.3% year-over-year (YoY) increase, according to data from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB).
Year-to-date (YTD) through June, domestic beer shipments are down 5.2%, with 3.968 million fewer barrels shipped than last year.
“From a shipments perspective, Q2 was a substantial improvement over Q1,” Heritage wrote. “For the quarter, total supply contracted by -3.4%, about half the rate of the first quarter.”
Within the quarter, key selling periods (Easter, which fell in Q1 2024, and July 4 week) outperformed in 2025 compared to 2024.
Steep shipment declines in January (-8.7%) and February (-16.4%) ushered in an inauspicious start to 2025, but when those two months are excluded, domestic shipments “are down only -1.8% over the past four months,” Heritage noted.
While a break in 2025’s unrelenting volume declines may inspire hope for better days ahead, Heritage cautioned against it for myriad reasons.
“How the remainder of 2025 plays out is unclear,” he wrote. “A macroeconomic slowdown appears to be setting in.
“Q2 GDP was positive, but a deeper look by component shows a slowing economy outside of the increase in net exports (as imports declined for the quarter after front loading of imports in Q1 due to international trade uncertainty),” he continued.
Imported beer volume declined 3.6% in June, to 3.765 million barrels, according to data from the BI and U.S. Department of Commerce. YTD, imports have declined 5%, with 20.723 million barrels shipped.
Among the top 10 largest importing countries, No. 4 Canada (-79.6% in June, -81.5% YTD) and No. 6 Italy (-77.2% in June, -63.7% YTD) recorded the steepest declines. Several key brands from both markets are now brewed in the U.S., causing import volume to fall, Heritage noted.
Mexican imports, which dwarf beer volume from all other nations, declined 0.5% in June, to 3.311 million barrels in June. The improvement over May, when Mexican import volume declined 0.9%, brought Mexico’s YTD decline to 2.7%, compared to -3.2% in May. Hispanic consumers, who account for much of the drinker base for beers such as Constellation Brands’ Modelo Especial, remain disproportionately affected by a macro environment that includes tariffs, inflation, immigration enforcement, ICE raids and other pressures.
No. 3 Ireland recorded the most substantial growth, increasing volume 14.7%, to 72,222 barrels in June. No. 10 the United Kingdom posted a larger gain (+99.9%), but off a smaller base (9,190 barrels).
At the state level, shipments to wholesalers increased 0.1% in June, to 17.175 million barrels, though remained -5% YTD. Nearly half the states (22) plus Washington, D.C., recorded shipment growth in June. For the first half of the year, however, Washington, D.C.’s volume was flat, and all 50 states were in decline.
The nation’s capital led the way in volume growth for June, posting a 15.4% increase in shipments, to 30,000 barrels, followed by Texas (+10.9%, 1.936 million barrels), Idaho (+10.6%, 104,417 barrels), South Dakota (+8.3%, 78,000 barrels) and Alabama (+7%, 281,000 barrels).
Rhode Island recorded the steepest shipment decline in June (-10.8%, to 39,000 barrels), followed by Ohio (-7.8%, 630,000 barrels), Hawaii (-7.8%, 59,000 barrels), Nebraska (-7.7%, 120,000 barrels) and Oklahoma (-7.1%, 224,972 barrels).
YTD by volume, Texas remained the leader in volume, with 10.117 million barrels shipped (-2.6% YoY), followed by California (9.59 million barrels, -2.2% YTD), Florida (6.56 million barrels, -7.4% YTD), New York (4.12 million barrels, -7.3% YTD) and Pennsylvania (3.49 million barrels, -3.5% YTD).
As declines continue, Heritage warned that beer may be the economy’s canary in the coalmine.
“The labor market has been resilient but is also showing signs of a slowdown despite historic low levels of unemployment,” he wrote “Yet, the beer consumer has pulled back for much of the year, potentially indicating that the beer industry faced macroeconomic headwinds earlier than other sectors of the economy.”
Though both channels are in the red, on-premise depletions (-4.8%) declines have outperformed off-premise depletions (-5.1%), Heritage noted. Within the on-premise channel, independent outlets have bested chains “by a percentage point or greater.”
“This offers some evidence of cyclical headwinds of consumer pullback being stronger at chain establishments, where consumers would be most likely to pull back when moderating spending due to less strongly held local ties,” he wrote.
The BI expects to report July data on September 4.