U.S. brewers shipped an estimated 12.8 million barrels of beer in July, a -2.5% decline year-over-year (YoY), and a loss of 458,000 barrels compared to July 2023, according to the Beer Institute (BI).
July was the second consecutive month of declines for domestic tax paid shipments, following a -7.1% YoY decline in June. Domestic tax paids have declined in four of the last seven months, with declines also recorded in April (-3.3%) and March (-16.1%).
Note that shipment numbers are estimates from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB), and are subject to change. For example, June estimates were previously reported as declining -4.8% YoY, but were adjusted for a greater loss at -7.1% in the latest report.
Year-to-date domestic shipments have now declined -2.5% through the first seven months of 2024, marking a loss of more than 2.23 million barrels versus the same period in 2023.
The declines could mark a “new baseline” for beer “after several years of post-pandemic shifts,” BI chief economist Andrew Heritage wrote.
Meanwhile, July state shipments increased +1.1% YoY, to nearly 17.48 million barrels. Twenty-eight states, plus Washington, D.C., recorded YoY shipment gains, including three of the largest beer-producing states: No. 2 California (+5.8%), No. 3 Florida (+5.6%) and No. 4 New York (+2.2%).
D.C.’s strong July (+7.1% YoY), helped the capital city improve its year-to-date (YTD) losses from -7.5% through June – the steepest percentage decline in the period – to now -5.3%. Hawaii (-8.9%) now has the largest decline in YTD barrels versus the same seven-month period in 2023.
Texas, the largest state by year-to-date shipments, recorded a -1.7% YoY decline in July.
YTD state shipments have now declined -0.3%, to nearly 113.54 million barrels, versus more than 113.93 million in the first seven months of 2023.
Imports continue to be the growth leader for total U.S. beer supply, setting a “new monthly record” for beer volume in July, at 4.2 million barrels, a +7.1% increase YoY. YTD beer imports have now increased +8.2% versus the same period in 2023.
Mexican imports – the largest contributor by nearly tenfold versus No. 2 Netherlands – recorded a +7.3% YoY increase in July, to more than 108 million gallons (nearly 3.48 million barrels). YTD Mexican imports increased +10.5% versus the same period in 2023, to more than 668.74 million gallons (more than 21.57 million barrels), the third largest percentage increase of the top 10 countries by YTD volume, after No. 9 Guatemala (+27.7%) and No. 10 Vietnam (+11.2%).
The Netherlands increased volume +24.2% YoY in July, to 11.48 million gallons (370,394 barrels), and have now increased YTD volume +1.5%. No. 3 Ireland recorded a -11% decline versus July 2023, to nearly 1.92 million gallons (61,834 barrels). However, YTD barrels increased +8.4% versus the first seven months of 2023. No. 4 Canada recorded YoY declines in both July imports (32.1%) and YTD volume (-23.3%).
Total U.S. beer supply is now about flat (-0.2%) versus the same period in 2023. However, “scans have softened in recent weeks” and “a recent uptick in consumer uncertainty is further muddling the near-term outlook,” Heritage wrote.
In a positive spin, beer is “growing on occasion weeks,” increasing +1.7% on average in weeks that include major holidays or “traditional beer occasions,” according to Heritage, citing BI sales-to-retailer data.
“This indicates that consumers continue to choose beer as their beverage of choice,” Heritage wrote.
“Consumer uncertainty and increasingly stressed discretionary incomes are leading to slowing retail sales overall across industries,” he continued. “For the beer industry, sales in between occasions will rebound as uncertainty fades over the coming months.”
The BI’s August economic reports are scheduled for release on October 8.