U.S. brewers shipped more beer this March, with domestic tax paid shipments increasing 0.7% year-over-year (YoY), to 12.5 million barrels of beer, the Beer Institute reported, citing domestic tax paid estimates from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB).
March marked the first month shipments increased in 2025 (+85,596 barrels), following declines in January (-8.7%, to 10.55 million barrels) and February (-14.9%, to 10.3 million barrels).
Year-to-date (YTD), shipments have declined 7.5%, to 33.35 million barrels, amounting to a YoY loss of more than 2.7 million barrels.
As a reminder, these are estimates that can and likely will be revised.
Recall, there were only four months in 2024 – January (+2.9%), February (+9.6%), May (+5.9%) and October (+1%) – of YoY growth. 2024’s early growth was helped by inventory builds at Anheuser-Busch InBev and Molson Coors due to the threat of strikes at both companies.
Total Imports -4.6% in March; Mexican Imports -7.3%
Imports are in the red (-1.1%) through the first three months of 2025, according to Department of Commerce data shared by the BI.
The picture worsened in March with overall imports declining 4.6%, as Mexican imports fell 7.3% during the month (a loss of more than 6.8 million gallons, or 219,355 barrels, of beer).
More than 9.96 million barrels of beer were imported into the U.S. in Q1, a loss of around 115,103 barrels compared to the same period in 2024. In March, beer imports totaled more than 3.45 million barrels of beer, a loss of around 165,696 barrels compared to March 2024.
Imports from Mexico, the largest source of imported beer volume, remained positive (+0.4%) through Q1 (256.55 million gallons, or 8.28 million barrels, in Q1 2025 compared to 255.6 million gallons, or 8.25 million barrels, in Q1 2024).
Although Mexican imports fell in March, other countries found YoY growth during the month, including:
- The Netherlands +7.1%;
- Ireland +167.6%;
- And Germany +23.1%.
Imports from Ireland (+5.2%) and Germany (+27.7%) both grew YTD through Q1, while the Netherlands declined (-2.6%).
Canadian beer imports are solidly in the red YTD (-79%), with volume down to 1.36 million gallons (41,935 barrels) compared to more than 6.46 million gallons (208,387 barrels) through the first three months of 2024. In March 2025, the declines accelerated (-82.3%), with imports at 406,343 gallons (13,108 barrels) compared to nearly 2.3 million gallons (74,194 barrels) in March 2024.
State Shipments -6.6% in Q1
Through March, state shipments-to-wholesalers (STW) have declined 6.6%, to more than 41 million barrels. That amounted to a loss of more than 2.88 million barrels YoY.
However, STWs increased 0.3% in March, to more than 14.69 million barrels, as 19 states grew volume YoY, three states were flat and 28 states and Washington, D.C., were in decline.
Shipments in Texas, the largest beer state, are down 9.5% YTD, to 4.63 million barrels (-487,000 barrels). The Lone Star State’s trends improved in March (+1.8% YoY, to 1.636 million barrels).
In No. 2 California, shipments are down -4.3% YTD, to more than 4.358 million barrels (-193,900 barrels). Trends in the Golden State also improved in March, growing +8.7% YoY, to more than 1.57 million barrels.
Meanwhile, trends in Florida are down through Q1 (-5.9%, to 3.346 million barrels) but also swung positive in March (+2.8%, to 1.229 million barrels).
Just four states have recorded growth through Q1:
- Hawaii +5.4%;
- Tennessee +1%;
- Delaware +0.8%;
- And Arizona +0.3%.
Total Beer Supply -6.1% YTD
The total U.S. beer supply (domestic production plus imports) is down 6.1% through Q1, the BI reported. Driving declines in beer sales is “a weakening macroeconomic environment in Q1,” BI chief economist Andrew Heritage wrote.
“Q1 was tough throughout the U.S. economy with a slight contraction of GDP by -0.3%,” he wrote. “Consumer sentiment steadily declined over the quarter to reach the second-lowest historical reading in April in the University of Michigan survey’s 73-year history.
“Uncertainty over future economic policy also hit its highest reading since 2020 during the early months of the pandemic. After several years of rising cost of goods for consumers, the sharp rise in uncertainty over future business conditions led many consumers to pull back, including on purchases of beer.”
Heritage pointed to trends improving in April with four-week depletion data (through May 3), declining by 2.8%, bolstered by “strong” Easter holiday sales and off-premise volume growth (+0.7%).
“While consumer sentiment remains soft, most indicators of how the economy is actually performing show resilience,” wrote Heritage, adding that “the short-term macroeconomic outlook” remains uncertain.
“With key beer summer-selling months ahead, there’s reason to believe that cyclical headwinds are calming and the rest of 2025 will be stronger months for the industry,” he added.