If craft beer had a Bizarro World, a place where everything was the opposite of its current state, it would be Williamsport, Pennsylvania, home of New Trail Brewing.
“We’ve all heard the headlines: There’s blood in the streets, craft’s in trouble, down -2% – not us,” co-founder Dave Hertwig told the wholesalers gathered for the brewery’s inaugural distributor summit last week. “Month-over-month through the first seven months [of 2024], we’ve had growth. We’re actually 75 and 0, never had a down month yet.”
New Trail’s output increased +33% in 2023, to 39,147 barrels of beer, according to the May/June issue of the Brewers Association’s (BA) New Brewer Magazine. This made New Trail the 66th largest regional craft brewery in the country by volume, the fourth-largest Pennsylvania-headquartered brewery, and marked its third consecutive year of growth.
“We came out of COVID like a rocket – +203% growth in 2021,” Hertwig said. “We were named the fastest growing brewery in America by the BA. It was awesome, but 20,156 barrels produced and sold on a 15-barrel system was awful. But we learned a lot that year.”
Since its founding in 2018, New Trail has upgraded its brewing equipment to allow for 100,000-barrel capacity both on the hot side and for cellaring, chief operating officer and head brewer Mike LaRosa said.
“We now operate a three-vessel, 15-barrel brewhouse as well as a four-vessel, 60-barrel fully automatic brewhouse that runs close to six days a week, 24 hours a day,” he said.
Pennsylvania accounts for 86% of New Trail’s volume, with 286,767 case equivalents (CEs) sold in the Keystone state year-to-date through July 31. The brewery has focused on neighboring states as it expands distribution to Maryland (7% of New Trail volume, +170.3% year-over-year as it continues to add more distributors), New Jersey (6%, +23.7% YoY) West Virginia (1%, launched February 2024).
Year-to-date (YTD) through July 31, New Trail’s volume is up +19.8% YoY. For six of the first seven months of 2024, the brewery has recorded double-digit volume gains:
- January – +20.8%
- February – +23.1%
- March – +10%
- April – +32.1%
- May – +17.6%
- June – +7.1%
- July – +33%.
In the 52-week ending July 13, dollar sales of the New Trail portfolio have increased +21.7% at off-premise retailers tracked by market research firm NIQ, compared to the same period last year. Volume, measured in case sales, increased +39%.
New Trail’s portfolio comprises most of the craft beer segment’s most popular styles, including imperial/double/triple IPAs (+8.6% in dollar sales, +6.5% in volume in the 52-week period ending July 13 nationwide according to NIQ data) and hazy imperial/double/triple IPAs (+46.8% in dollar sales, +47.3% in volume). Hazy IPA was down -0.2% in dollars and -2.5% in volume nationwide during the period, but the style’s dollar share among craft remained flat, according to NIQ.
“2024 has been a great year for both imperial and hazy imperial IPAs – both continue to be one of the best performing styles throughout Pennsylvania,” national account manager Paul Gephart said during the summit. “As of August, they both hold that No. 1 and No. 2 spot in growth, so up +7% in dollar share, +6.8% volume, and these trends have pretty much stayed consistent throughout the entire year.”
New Trail Broken Heels IPA, its hazy flagship, bucked style trends and increased dollar sales +35.3% and volume +42.1%, according to NIQ. Double Broken Heels IPA also recorded double-digit gains in dollar sales (+10.4%) and volume (+14.8%) in NIQ data, which doesn’t include on-premise sales and some off-premise channels.
By the company’s measurement, the Broken Heels family, which includes both aforementioned beers and Tropical Broken Heels, is up +45%.
The brewery deploys most popular craft package formats, including single-serve 19.2 oz. cans, which are “really strong” for New Trail, Gephart said. Dollar sales of Broken Heels 19.2 oz. cans have increased +42.9% and volume is up +46.4% in Pennsylvania in the 26-week period ending July 13.
“We got into that at the right time, and our Broken Heels did phenomenal,” he said. “Double Broken Heels has taken off.”
New Trail’s 12-pack sales ranked fourth in Pennsylvania scan data in the L26W, behind fellow Keystone State brewers No. 1 Tröegs, No. 2 Artisanal Brewing Ventures-owned Victory and No. 3 Levante Brewing. New Trail’s 12-pack portfolio has increased +15.85% in dollars and +16.63% in volume in Pennsylvania in the L26W, according to data the company shared.
New Trail’s trends diverge from overall craft in 16 oz. can 4-packs, which have declined -3.9% in dollars and -7.3% in volume nationwide, per NIQ. However, in its home state, the format has grown dollar sales +0.3% for New Trail in the 13-week period (L13W) ending July 13.
In fact, New Trail dominates the package format in Pennsylvania, where it holds a nearly 20% share of all 4-pack dollars in the state. Its next closest competitor is Vermont-based Lawson’s Finest Liquids, which holds a 6.95% share and lost -0.84 share points in the L13W.
“We deserve some space,” Hertwig said of the brewery’s share of 4-pack sales. “If this is truly a thinning time, it’s gonna be really important that we’re not the ankle biter in the back of the store, next to the bathroom with no price tag on it. So our team is out there trying to work on it. Your team’s out there working on it. We’ve just got to keep going.”
Brewbound coverage of New Trail’s inaugural distributor summit and its 2025 brand plans will continue in the coming days.