Businesses may have to prepare for less frequent on-premise visits this fall, as consumers are becoming increasingly more wary of visiting bars and restaurants with rising COVID-19 cases, according to a study released yesterday by investment banking and financial services firm Jefferies.
Of the 1,000 adult consumers surveyed, 42% said they felt “somewhat more” or “much more” uncomfortable going to restaurants over the past couple months, and 58% going to bars, than they were previously. Unvaccinated consumers (36% of those surveyed), younger consumers, and men expressed the most comfort going to on-premise establishments.
Large events, such as concerts and sporting events, have become less comfortable for 65% of respondents, second only to cruise ships (69%).
When specifically factoring in consumers that “expect to feel comfortable” attending on-premise establishments “in a post-COVID world,” less than 60% said they feel comfortable at bars and just over 75% feel comfortable at restaurants. Less than 60% feel comfortable on cruise ships, at large event venues, and on airplanes.
Vaccine mandates to enter establishments would ease concerns for about 60% of respondents, with already vaccinated patrons (76%), and older consumers (70% over 74 years old, 60% aged 35-74). Respondents living in urban areas (70%) sought out vaccine mandates more than those in rural areas (53%).
The increased concern from consumers comes as COVID-19 cases begin to rise again. As of July 27, the average cases in the U.S. rose to over 60,000 cases a week, up from 12,000 a week in late June, according to the CDC, which likened the case rate to the period “before the vaccine was widely available.”
There has also been concern for the Delta variant, now the predominant strain of the virus in the U.S., which the CDC said is “more infectious,” leading to “increased transmissibility when compared to other variants.”
Jefferies’ survey is not alone in its findings. The National Restaurant Association and its state restaurant association partners sent a letter to Congressional leadership Tuesday, asking for funding for the depleted Restaurant Revitalization Fund (RRF) following the results of a consumer survey the association’s research group conducted, according to a press release.
Of the 1,000 U.S. adults surveyed from August 13-15, six-in-ten said they had changed their restaurant usage as a result of the Delta variant and increased COVID-19 cases. Nearly 20% said they had completely stopped going out to restaurants, while 9% said they had canceled existing plans to go in recent weeks.
When it comes to how consumers are dining, 37% said they ordered to-go or delivery rather than visiting on-premise establishments, while 19% said they chose to sit in outdoor dining spaces rather than inside.
Just over 40% of consumers said they visited on-premise establishments with none of the above changes.
Despite the concern over cases — and possibly contrary to the Jefferies survey — respondents were wary of mandates or restrictions for visiting bars and restaurants. One-in-three adults said they would be less likely to go out to a restaurant if masks were required to dine inside, while the same number of respondents said they would be less likely to go if proof of vaccination was required to dine in.
A quarter of those surveyed said masks mandates would make them more likely to go out, while 43% said the mandate would have no impact on their decision. A third of respondents said a vaccine mandate would make them more likely to go out, while 35% said it would have no impact.
“For an industry that requires a ‘full house’ every evening to make a profit, this is a dangerous trend,” Sean Kennedy, executive vice president of public affairs for the National Restaurant Association, said in the release. “These changes indicate declining consumer confidence that will make it more difficult for most restaurant owners to maintain their delicate financial stability.”
“The rise of coronavirus variants like Delta threatens to push these restaurants closer to permanent closure,” the National Restaurant Association added in the letter. “The [RRF] has been a lifeline for many owners, but as you are well aware, it was only able to fund roughly one-in-three applications – leaving 177,000 restaurants in communities across the country without desperately needed stability.
“The National Restaurant Association and the state restaurant association partners below urge Congress to complete the mission of the RRF and provide adequate funds to replenish the program and offer relief for the 177,000 applications still pending. The small gains that our industry has made toward financial security are in danger of being wiped out, dashing the hopes of communities, entrepreneurs, and consumers nationwide,” it continued.
The 177,000 pending applicants would require $43.6 billion in grants, according to the release.