Off-premise sales of craft beer are off to a rough start in 2022.
Year-to-date through April 2 of 2022, craft dollar sales declines have accelerated to nearly -10% ( $1.24 billion in overall sales) compared to the -6% decline in calendar year 2021, according to Bump Williams Consulting, which shared the latest NielsenIQ (total U.S. — XAOC + Liquor plus Convenience) scan data.
Williams reported that the craft segment posted the steepest declines of any segment tracked in off-premise outlets. In fact, the firm said trends over the last four weeks “are even more concerning,” as dollar sales are down more than -12%.
Craft’s declines are outpacing the overall beer category (beer, FMBs, and cider), which is down -3.1%. Craft isn’t the only segment off to a slow start, with just three segments in the black: imports (+4.7%), FMBs (+2.1%) and non-alcoholic beer (+17.6%). Hard seltzers, which had boosted beer category sales in recent years, are also struggling (-4.7%).
Hazy IPAs have “stumbled out of the gate” with dollar sales in the red (-0.6%), although they’ve gained +0.8 share points of total craft year-over-year, up to 8.9%, Williams noted. Imperial IPAs and hazy imperial IPAs also ranked as the top two growth styles in craft so far this year, showing that higher ABV offerings are “clearly sought out,” Williams wrote.
Mainstream (Blue Moon, Leinenkugel’s, Shock Top), regional (Founders, Bell’s, etc.) and local craft beer are all down year-to-date — ranging from -10% to -12%. “Local” craft beer sales declined -12% in Q1, which Williams noted is similar to Q1 2020 levels.
National craft brands (New Belgium, Sierra Nevada, Lagunitas, etc.) are faring much better in comparison, with dollar sales declines of -2% compared to 2021.
Just one of the top 15 craft vendors — New Belgium (+8.3%) — increased dollar sales through April 2, and only four increased their dollar share of craft: New Belgium (+1.2 share points), Sierra Nevada (+0.4), Craft Brew Alliance (+0.1) and Duvel Moortgat (+0.2).
Also of note, non-alcoholic beer maker Athletic Brewing has increased its brand family dollar sales +122.6% year-to-date and gained 0.4 share points of craft dollars sales, claiming a 0.7 share of the craft segment. Athletic was the No. 2 craft growth leader, trailing just New Belgium.
New Belgium’s Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA (+25.7%), Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze (+31.4%) and Voodoo Ranger Hoppy Pack (+24%) and Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing IPA (+2%), Big Little Thing IPA (+87.1%) were five of the six brands (plus A-B-owned Kona Big Wave Golden Ale at +10.7%) to increase dollar sales within the top 25 craft brands. Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA, Voodoo Ranger Juice Force and Big Little Thing ranked as the top three craft growth brands, with the recently launched Juice Force leading the way among new craft brands.
The list of top 10 craft brand family loss leaders include Sierra Nevada (-3.3%), A-B-owned Shock Top (-30.6%) and Elysian (-11.4%), Shine (-9.9%), Boston Beer-owned Dogfish Head (-21.9%), Molson Coors-owned Leinenkugel’s (-20.9%), Boston’s Samuel Adams (-7.5%), Lion Little World-owned Bell’s (-14.8%), Heineken-owned Lagunitas (-10.8%) and Mahou San Miguel-owned Founders (-17.6%).
Year-to-date, the average price paid per equivalent case beer is up +4% at more than $40 per case equivalent, which Williams reported is “partially mix driven.” Average price has increased from $37.88 in 2019 to $40.56 this year.
According to Williams, craft brands in the $40-49.99 average equivalent price are faring the “best” at -6% compared to 2021.
The average price paid per unit is also up +2%, which is on the level of calendar year 2021 at $9.58.
Of the top 25 craft brand families, 23 have increased in average equivalent price across their portfolios — the exceptions being Stone and Wicked Weed.
Craft cans dollar share of the craft beer segment are up 4.8% year-to-date, to 62.8% share compared to 37.1% share for bottles. Packages gaining the most share included 12 oz. 12-packs (+2.3 share points) and 19.2 oz. single-serve cans (+1.7 share points). 19.2s stand out with dollar sales up 48.5% year-to-date.