Hard cider outpaced beer in dollar sales gains in 2023, increasing dollar sales +1.9% year-over-year (YoY) through December 30 in NIQ-tracked off-premise channels, according to 3 Tier Beverages consultant Mary Mills’ presentation at CiderCon Thursday in Portland, Oregon.
Beer dollar sales increased +1.4% in NIQ-tracked channels (total U.S. xAOC + liquor plus + convenience). Cider volume declined -2.7% YoY, slightly below declines for beer (-3%).
While the trends are positive for the hard cider segment – at least in terms of dollar sales – there’s still a lot of runway for hard cider, Mills said, analyzing consumer penetration percentages (the percentage of consumers drinking hard cider, according to Nielsen omnichannel data).
Hard cider penetration is relatively flat, down -0.5% YoY through November 2, to 6.9%. Beer penetration declined -0.7% YoY, but still significantly outweighs hard cider at 72.9%. Wine and spirits are similarly in about the 70% range, according to Mills.
“The opportunity here is penetration,” Mills said. “We still have a huge opportunity to reach consumers that are in a very adjacent category that are drinking alcohol.”
The annual dollars spent per buyer on cider is up +5.6%, to $35, and the amount of dollars spent per buying occasion is up +6.4%, to $12.82. The amount of buying occasions for cider is down -0.8%, to 2.7, meaning that the increase in dollars isn’t from consumers buying cider more often, but rather spending more per trip, Mills noted.
“That can be two different things,” Mills said. “They are seeing inflation at the shelf, so they’re spending more on average, whether they like it or not. They also could be trading up, so they’re going for a larger pack size, they’re going for a more premium brand.”
While Mills encouraged cider producers to look at ways to attract consumers from other categories and segments, she also warned them not to overdo innovation.
“Ten,15 years ago, we were talking about new packages — that’s all there was,” Mills said. She referenced her time at Molson Coors (then MillerCoors), and the excitement industry members had over package innovations such as screw tops and white cans.
“We just didn’t have this kind of innovation, so now it is overwhelming,” she continued. “There’s probably a happy medium that we need to settle a bit so that there’s not so much, because it’s overwhelming to consumers too.”
Mills also looked at cider performance on a regional level. While hard cider did not see dollar sales gains in every region, the segment did record growth in its “most critical” markets, according to Mills.
In the Pacific division (Washington, Oregon and California), the largest region for cider sales, the segment’s dollar sales were just over flat, increasing +0.1% YoY (up nearly $84,000), while in the South Atlantic, cider’s second largest region, dollar sales increased +5% (up $3 million). Combined, the two divisions account for 54% of total off-premise cider dollar sales in the U.S.
Cider also recorded dollar sales gains in the Mountain Division (+11.7%) and the East South Central Division (+3%), which account for a combined 9% of total cider sales. East North Central (-10.9%), West South Central (-1.3%), New England (-1.3%) and West North Central (-4.8%) were all in the red, while the Middle Atlantic was flat.
Breaking Down Cider Trends: Packaged Cider Gaining in the On-Premise
Cans’ dominance over cider packages continues, with the format now accounting for 62% of total cider dollar sales. Canned cider dollar sales increased +7.8% in 2023 versus 2022, led by 4-packs, 15-packs and 24-packs (can size not specified).
Bottled cider recorded a -6.9% decline in dollar sales YoY, led by declines in bottled 15-packs (down more than $10 million), 4-packs and 3-packs.
In the on-premise, packaged cider is gaining popularity, increasing share of on-premise cider volume +1.2 percentage points, to 39.9%, in the 52 weeks ending November 4.
Cider volume overall declined -12.6% in 2023, accounting for 1.1% share of total beer volume in the channel (-0.1 percentage points YoY). Draft cider volume declined -14.3% YoY, while packaged cider volume declined -9.9%.
“Flavored” ciders account for 41% of total cider sales in NIQ-tracked off-premise channels, and 46% of cider growth in the off-premise, accounting for six of the top 10 cider growth SKUs in 2023, according to Mills. Four of the top 10 cider flavors recorded double-digit dollar sales gains YoY: No. 3 blackberry (+17.3%), No. 6 cherry (+90.4%), No. 7 mango (+20.1%) and No. 10 blueberry (+70%).
The top cider flavors by 2023 dollar sales growth include:
- Cherry (+$5.3 million);
- Apple (+$5 million);
- Blackberry (+$3.2 million);
- Blueberry (+$2.8 million);
- Raspberry (+$2.2 million);
- Mango (+$1.2 million);
- Peach (+$984,000);
- Seasonal (+$819,000);
- Pineapple (+$744,000);
- And berry (+$531,000).
Higher ABV ciders – accounting for 16% of overall cider dollar sales – recorded the largest share gains in 2023, with ciders between 7% and 9.9% ABV gaining 6.9% share YoY (+$34.8 million) and ciders 10%+ ABV gaining +0.2% share (+$1.2 million).
Low- and non-alcoholic adult ciders – between 0% and 3.9% – gained +0.2% share of cider dollars (+$0.9 million), starting from near-zero share in 2022. Meanwhile, the middle range – which accounts for 83.8% of total cider off-premise dollar sales – lost -6.9% share YoY, with a decline of -$25.7 million.
Regional Ciders Now Have 55% Share of Segment Dollar Sales
Regional cider brands continue to gain share of overall cider, accounting for 55% of the segment’s off-premise dollar sales in 2023. The subsegment has steadily increased share from 33% in 2018, hitting the 50% mark in 2021.
Regional cideries recorded the largest dollar sales gains in the convenience channels (+21.9% YoY), outpacing the overall category (+11.1%) and total beer (+1.9%). Double-digit gains were also recorded in drug stores (+16.3%), while total cider (-13.6%) and beer (-5.1%) were in the red. In food, regional cider dollar sales increased +3.3%, while total cider declined -0.9% and beer dollars increased +0.3%.
Liquor was the only off-premise channel where regional cider recorded dollar sales loss, declining -8% YoY. The subsegments’ declines were also accelerated over losses by total cider (-6.5%) and beer (-1.5%).
In the on-premise, regional cider brands accounted for 51.1% of total cider volume in 2023, a loss of -1.9 percentage points YoY after regional share gains in 2022. Regional cider volume declined -15.7% in 2023, while national cider volume declined -9.1%.
Within regional cider, cans account for 84% share of off-premise dollar sales, with can dollars increasing +7.2% YoY. Of that 84%, the majority (88%) is multipacks (dollar sales +7.2% YoY), while 12% is single-serve cans (dollar sales +7.3%).
Twelve oz. 6-packs recorded the largest dollar sales gains for regional ciders in cans, followed by 12 oz. 12-packs, single-serve 19.2 oz. cans and 12 oz. 9-packs. Sixteen oz. 4-packs recorded the largest dollar sales losses, with minor declines recorded by single-serve 16 oz. and 12 oz. cans, and 12 oz. 4-packs.
Regional brands in bottles increased off-premise dollar sales +3.4% YoY. The majority of bottled regional ciders (72%) are multipacks, which increased dollar sales +8.7% YoY. Single bottles recorded a -7.9% decline in dollar sales.
Twelve oz. 6-packs recorded the largest dollar sales gains within bottled regional cider, followed by 12 oz. 15-packs and 12 oz. 4-packs. 12.9 oz. single bottles recorded the largest dollar sales losses, followed by 22 oz. single bottles, 12 oz. single bottles and 12 oz. 12-packs. Single 24.5 oz. bottles were relatively flat.