BarthHaas: Hop Market Oversupplied as Acreage Increases for 8th Consecutive Year

Global hop acreage grew +0.8% to 62,886 hectares (nearly 155,395 acres) in 2021, increasing for the eighth consecutive year, global hop supplier BarthHaas reported Monday.

The U.S. recorded the largest hop acreage with 25,200 hectares (nearly 62,271 acres), followed by Germany (20,600 hectares/50,904 acres). Together, the two countries account for about 73% of the global hop acreage. The next closest country was the Czech Republic, with 5,000 hectares (about 12,355 acres).

Alpha volumes also increased again in 2021 (+7% year-over-year), recording a record volume for the third consecutive year with 130,800 tons. The average alpha acid content increased to a record of 10.8% for all hop varieties harvested worldwide, due in part to increased crop of “alpha-rich flavor and aroma varieties” in the U.S. and Germany, according to BarthHaas.

The continued growth of hop acreage has led to persistent oversupply in the market, which BarthHaas said is affecting the length of suppliers’ contracts.

“Contract durations are becoming shorter due to uncertain expectations,” Peter Hintermeier, BarthHaas managing director, said during a press conference Monday. “Customers enquiring about contract restructuring and delayed call-offs of hop products already ordered are further indications of lower demand and continuing inventory build-up.”

BarthHaas predicts the growth trend will end in 2022, projecting 62,530 hectares (154,515 acres) of hops globally in crop year 2022, declining 360 hectares (nearly 890 acres) compared to 2021. The decline is “urgently necessary” for the hop market to “return toward equilibrium,” particularly as suppliers battle increased production costs, according to BarthHaas.

“The hop industry worldwide is struggling with an unprecedented increase in production costs at all stages of the value chain,” Hintermeier said. “Production cost increases and overproduction are a dangerous combination presenting the hop industry with huge challenges. The global hop industry can only counter excess production by adjusting acreage.”

The global beer output increased +4% in 2021 to 1.86 billion hectoliters (hl), up from 1.79 billion hl in 2020, BarthHaas reported. The output is still below 2019 levels (1.91 billion hl).

Almost half of the beer produced worldwide is produced in four countries: China (359.7 million hl, +4.5% YOY); the U.S. (203.6 million hl, -0.1% YOY); Brazil (143 million hl, +7.7% YOY); Mexico (134.7 million hl, +6.1% YOY). Germany remained the fifth largest producer with an output of 85.4 million hl of beer, despite decline -1.8% YOY.

Anheuser-Busch InBev (A-B) continues to dominate the global beer market, with a beer output of 581.7 million hl in 2021, increasing +9.6% YOY. Its next closest competitor, Heineken, increased output 4.3% YOY, to 231.2 million hl of beer.

The top 20 beer producers after those leaders include:

  • Carlsberg Group (119.6 million hl, +8.6% YOY)
  • China Resources Snow Breweries (112.2 million hl, +5%)
  • Molson Coors (84 million hl, -0.6%)
  • Tsingtao Brewery Co. (76 million hl, -5%)
  • Asahi Group (57.4 million hl, +2%)
  • BGI/Groupe Castel (40 million hl, +9.1%)
  • Efes Beverage Group (37.9 million hl, +4.7%)
  • Yanjing (33.5 million hl, -5.1%)
  • Constellation Brands (32.6 million hl, +7.9%)
  • Grupo Pretópolis (29.5 million hl, -4.8%)
  • Kirin (26.1 million hl, -5.8%)
  • Diageo (21 million hl, +1%)
  • CCU (19.2 million hl, +23%)
  • San Miguel Corporation (15.7 million hl, +8.3%)
  • Saigon Beverage Corp. (14.5 million hl, flat)
  • Grupo Mahou-San Miguel (14.5 million hl, +7.2%)
  • Singha Corporation (12.9 million hl, +2%)
  • Pearl River (12.8 million hl, +6.7%)

Africa recorded the largest increase in beer production of all continents, increasing +7.3% YOY to 141.06 million hl, led by production increases in South Africa (+5 million hl) and Angola (+2 million hl). The Americas had the next largest output increase (+4.8% YOY to 616.96 million hl), led by increases in Brazil (+10.2 million hl) and Mexico (+7.8 million hl).

Beer production in Asia increased +3.6% to 564.06 million hl, due in part to China’s output increasing +15.6 million hl, counteracting declines in Japan (-2.3 million hl) and South Korea (-1.1 million hl).

Looking ahead, BarthHaas warns that continued war in Ukraine may significantly impact global beer production in 2022, a “loss” that could be “on a par with that caused by the [COVID-19] pandemic.”

“As with the entire world economy, the brewing industry has been severely affected by the consequences of the war in Ukraine,” Hintermeier said. “Russia and Ukraine together brew around 100 million hectoliters of beer. This is equivalent to approx. 5% of the world’s beer output.”