The inaugural rating for the makers of Samuel Adams? Neutral. UBS sees “limited upside” in SAM shares.
UBS reports that despite being the largest craft brewer in the U.S. — they produced 2.48 million barrels last year — their “share of the segment is eroding.” The report points to Twisted Tea and Seasonals as the reason for the company’s 5 percent growth in 2011.
UBS notes that volume growth for Boston Beer slowed from 12 percent in 2010 to 9 percent in 2011, despite overall craft beer category growth of 14 percent. For 2012, UBS predicts volume growth of just 7.5 percent and depletion growth of 9 percent.
As for the overall craft beer category, UBS is bullish. They predict that the craft beer segment will reach 10 percent market share by 2016 — most of the growth coming from new entrants to the category and smaller brewers, not BBC.
You can read the full 32-page report here.