Distributor sentiment for bev-alc’s Memorial Day weekend (MDW) backs up reports that the holiday failed to bring the boost industry members were hoping for, according to the latest Bev Bytes report from Goldman Sachs.
Goldman Sachs surveyed contacts from about 50 beer distributors, whose accounts represent about 46% of total U.S. retail outlets that sell alcohol. The majority of survey respondents (55%) reported weaker MDW trends this year compared to 2024, with 42% reporting “somewhat weaker” sales and 13% noting “much weaker” trends.
Distributors cited many of the challenges that have plagued beer through the first half of the year as reasons for the dip in MDW sales, including:
- Macroeconomic headwinds, including tariffs;
- Poor weather conditions;
- The effects of new immigration policies;
- And “geographical headwinds,” also due to tariffs and the resulting impact on international relationships.
The latter has been particularly impactful in states bordering Canada. One distributor in a border state claimed it is “losing customers” as the U.S.’s northern counterpart has encouraged consumers and retailers to stop buying and selling bev-alc produced in the U.S.
Still, a quarter of surveyed beer distributors said MDW trends improved versus 2024, with 21% reporting “somewhat stronger” sales, and 4% “much stronger.” Twenty-one percent said trends were the same.
Those distributors’ calls for optimism stem from more beyond beer-oriented trends, including continued growth from ready-to-drink cocktails (RTDs), hard cider and even some hard seltzer brands, such as Mark Anthony Brands’ White Claw. Additionally, distributors acknowledged that “flavors continue to do really well” across beer, wine and spirits.
Distributors also reported “some increased promotional activity” and “retailer support behind large core beer displays.”
The lackluster MDW is just part of a disappointing first half of the year for beer. Year-to-date (YTD) through May 18, beer dollar sales (-2.6%) and volume (-4.2%) are not only in the red in Circana-tracked off-premise channels (total U.S. multi-outlet plus convenience), but also significantly outpacing declines from the same period in 2024, ending May 19 (dollar sales -0.5%, volume -2.3%). The latter should draw concern, should this summer follow similar patterns to last year.
Recall, not long after those May 2024 scans, the industry was caught off guard by an atypical summer selling season. Industry-wide volume losses between June and September accounted for 87% of 2024’s YoY volume declines, leading to a 1.8% decline in total beer supply for the full year, according to the Beer Institute (BI).
Nearly half of the latest survey respondents (46%) said beer category sales decelerated in April and May versus Q1 2025. About one-third (34%) said sales accelerated. However, the reasons given for those accelerations aren’t too promising for the category, and appear to be more fortunate circumstances, such as “easy sequential comps,” “some time shifts, including holiday and weekend time within the calendar” and “improved weather.”
“One distributor noted that Q1 trends were the worst they’ve seen in years – making it easy to sequentially improve from there,” Goldman Sachs analyst Bonnie Herzog wrote.
Looking ahead to the remainder of the summer selling season, the majority of beer distributors (59%) are expecting “weaker sales” compared to 2024, falling below already soft comps. About one-quarter (24%) expect this summer to be stronger, while 29% said it will be the same.
Many respondents cited continued economic pressures as the driver of their pessimism for this year, outweighing some positives from retailer promotions.
Multiple positive callouts were made for displays and product pushes at Walmart. The national retailer has “Summer Sizzle” pricing through Labor Day to help tackle pricing concerns, and is heavily supporting domestic beers, which “should help drive faster category growth,” distributors shared. However, one noted that “Walmart’s program may threaten the entire market pricing landscape.”
Just over one-quarter of respondents (26%) noted increased promotional activity across retailers right now, while 62% said retailers are following similar patterns to 2024, which was a moderate promotional environment.
Nearly half of beer volume (46%) was promoted over MDW, in line with the holiday in 2024 (47%), according to Goldman Sachs. Anheuser-Busch InBev (A-B) had the most promoted products, followed by Molson Coors, Constellation Brands and Boston Beer Company.
The majority of pricing promotions has been for premium and economy beer, according to respondents. One noted that “there has been very deep discounting recently, led by A-B, which has forced peers to ramp [up] their promotional intensity as well.”
Another distributor said “while the promotional environment is elevated, it’s less impactful and offering less ‘dollars’ to the consumer, albeit with a few exceptions.”
Looking ahead, about half (54%) of distributors believe promotional activity will remain the same through the rest of the summer, while 43% expect activity to increase as brewers chase “missing volume.” One shared that promotional activity could be 20% higher compared to 2024.
In the last four weeks (L4W, ending May 18), beer volume fell 4% below 2024 levels in Circana-tracked off-premise channels. Even steeper volume declines were recorded by domestic premium (-7.1%), flavored malt beverages [FMB] (-4.6%), craft (-7%) and hard seltzer (-8.8%).
In the same period, the average price per case of beer is up $0.47 year-over-year (YoY, to $31.07). Every beer segment except non-alcoholic (NA) is up year-over-year, led by hard seltzer (+$1.27, to $40.60).
Other increases include:
- Imports, +$0.71, to $37.65;
- Domestic premium, +$0.33, to $25.33;
- Domestic sub-premium, $0.51, to $20.15;
- FMBs, +$0.91, to $41.38;
- Craft, +$0.66, to $43.88;
- Domestic super premium, +$0.21, to $30.70;
- Hard cider, +$0.34, to $49.01.
NA prices are down $0.78, to $35.99.